Article Highlights:

  • Santorini’s 2025 earthquake swarm revealed global vulnerability to surprise quakes.
  • Most popular travel destinations sit along active quake zones: the Ring of Fire and Alpide Belt.
  • AI and machine learning are showing promise in short-term earthquake forecasting.
  • Laboratory models now link microscopic fault contact to real-world earthquake behavior.
  • Global Rescue offers life-saving support and extraction services during seismic disasters.

 

 

In early 2025, an intense and prolonged earthquake swarm rocked the idyllic island of Santorini, famed for its blue-domed churches and caldera views. Throughout January and February, the Greek government declared a state of emergency as the quakes continued, some surpassing magnitude 5.0. Thousands of residents and workers evacuated by ferry and air. Even seasoned seismologists described the tremor sequence as “a real puzzle,” with one admitting they had “encountered many surprises.”

While earthquakes are common in the region, which lies along the Hellenic Volcanic Arc, the unexpected strength and persistence of these tremors caught locals, scientists and travelers off guard, underscoring a growing question: are earthquakes predictable, and what should travelers know about earthquake safety?

 

Quakes and the Tourist Hotspots on Shaky Ground

Many of the world’s most visited tourist destinations lie within two of the most seismically active earthquake zones on the planet:

The Ring of Fire, which rims the Pacific Ocean, includes:

  • Tokyo and Kyoto, Japan
  • Bali, Indonesia
  • Santiago, Chile
  • Mexico City, Mexico
  • San Francisco and Los Angeles, USA

The Alpide Belt, stretching from the Mediterranean through Asia, includes:

  • Istanbul, Türkiye
  • Athens, Greece
  • Rome and Naples, Italy
  • Kathmandu, Nepal

These cities combine cultural appeal with seismic vulnerability. Whether you’re exploring temples in Tokyo or hiking in the Andes, the risk of quakes, tremors and temblors is real. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go. It means you should go prepared.

 

Are Earthquakes Predictable? The Latest Science

Historically, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has stated plainly that earthquakes cannot be predicted. A successful prediction must define the date, time, location, and magnitude, criteria that no method has consistently met. Recent advances in science and technology, however, are beginning to challenge the limits of what we thought possible.

In a groundbreaking 2023 study, researchers at The University of Texas at Austin used AI trained on China’s AETA seismic monitoring system to correctly predict 70% of earthquakes in a seven-month trial, up to a week in advance. The secret? It’s not new tech, but smart use of existing tools like random forests and principal component analysis applied to an exceptionally rich dataset.

While promising, this technique must still be tested outside China to confirm its broader applicability. But it represents a major shift: short-term forecasting, once deemed impossible, is now potentially within reach.

Researchers at the University of Southern California have developed a physical model using transparent acrylic materials and high-speed optical sensors to simulate real-time fault ruptures. They found that the real area of contact between fault surfaces — invisible to the eye but measurable — correlates with rupture speed and intensity.

These discoveries provide the first physical validation of earthquake behavior models that have guided seismology for decades. Monitoring real-world changes in fault conductivity or wave transmission could lead to early warnings before the ground even begins to shake.

 

Other Emerging Techniques

  • Ionospheric Monitoring: AI is used to analyze Earth’s ionosphere changes before quakes.
  • Improved Seafloor Networks: Acoustic and satellite technologies help track plate movement.
  • Integrated Physics-Based Models: Combining data-driven approaches with physical simulations may unlock greater accuracy in regions lacking historical seismic data.

While none of these systems can yet predict earthquakes with certainty, they bring us closer to understanding when and where the next shaker may strike.

 

What To Do in an Earthquake

Even with science advancing, the best defense against earthquakes remains preparedness. Here’s what to do in an earthquake:

  • Drop, cover and hold on during shaking.
  • Stay indoors until the shaking stops unless you’re in a structurally unsafe building.
  • Avoid elevators, windows and heavy furniture.
  • Have an emergency kit with water, food, first aid, a flashlight and extra phone power.
  • Know local evacuation routes and protocols.

If traveling in a quake-prone region, learn the local emergency numbers and inform your hotel staff or host of your plans.

 

The Global Rescue Connection

While we cannot predict or prevent natural disasters, we can take proactive steps to prepare and respond effectively. Understanding the risks, creating an emergency plan and staying informed can minimize the impact of earthquakes.

A Global Rescue membership ensures you’re not alone if you’re traveling and a natural disaster strikes. Our security operations team, comprising veteran military special forces, provides life-saving guidance, shelter-in-place advice and, if necessary, physical extraction to safety.

Global Rescue memberships are not insurance: there are no claim forms, deductibles or extra costs. Whether caught in an evacuation, injured in a quake or stranded in a high-risk area, Global Rescue is there for you when the Earth moves beneath your feet.